UFC 263 ADESANYA VS VETTORI 2: PREDICTIONS, ODDS, AND BETS



The UFC is making its return to Arizona tonight, and it's bringing along a stacked card for the sold-out crowd. Loaded from top to bottom with stars, fan favorites, and rising stars looking to catapult their way to the top of the UFC. Two championship fights, the first-ever 5-round non-title non-main event fight in UFC history, a night full of entertainment, and of course, an opportunity for us to place some bets. So with that, let's get into the fights.


Main Event- Middle Weight Championship

(C)Israel Adesanya (-255) vs. Marvin Vettori (+215)

First Fight: Adesanya via Decision


The Nigerian-born New Zealand Israel Adesanya has become one of the undisputed faces of the sport, and for a good reason. he is a world-class kickboxer with pinpoint accuracy and an innate ability to avoid taking damage. He has found a way to captivate the audience during his interviews and in all three aspects of a fight, during his entrance, the fight itself, and leaving the octagon. He will defend his championship against the Italian-born Marvin Vettori, who looks to become the UFC's first Italian-born Champion and redemption for his first loss to Adesanya.


Adesanya boasts a 20-1 professional record and is coming off his only loss after jumping to Lightheavy Weight as he sought to become a two-division champion. On the other side, Vettori has enjoyed a nice 5-fight win streak, with his last loss coming from Adesanya in April 2018.


Adesanya is a pure striker and a lethal one at that. He averages 3.95 Significant Strikes landed per minute and has 15 wins via (T)KO. He is very slippery and is hard to land clean strikes on, and he is great at countering his opponent's strikes. He has also proven he can absorb those massive strikes and not get staggered or flustered when they do land after taking several strikes from Lightheavy Weight Champion Jan Blachowicz, who is known for having immense power behind his punches and had a clear 20+ pound weight advantage on Adesanya. He doesn't take his opponents down and doesn't have a strong ground game in general. This has been a looming issue for Adesanya, but it's one that he's worked tremendously to fix. While still not interested in going to the ground, Adesanya has continued to develop his takedown defense and ground defense and has shown his ability to escape when taken down. Vettori will put this to the test as he's a natural grappler and likes to take his opponents down, even taking down Adesanya twice in their first fight. Vettori has a 53.6% takedown success rate, on top of 4.14 significant strikes landed per minute.


With this, we are siding with the champion. Adesanya is an elite striker and has shown he can learn and adapt very quickly. Vettori has shown development over the last three years since the first fight nut not as much as Adesanya. Adesanya will watch for the takedowns and counter Vettori's big strikes and string together combos. we have Adesanya winning via (T)KO


BET: ADESANYA MONEY LINE, ADESANYA VIA (T)KO (+180)

We also like the Under of 4.5 rounds at +120


CO MAIN EVENT- FLYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

(C)Deiveson Figueiredo (-230) vs. Brandon Moreno (+190)

First Fight: Draw


These two met last December, where the judges ultimately decided there was no clear winner to the contest. Figuerido is coming back to prove he's the undisputed Flyweight Champion and enters with a 20-1-1 record. His strong wrestling background has proven to be a real issue for his opponents. He possesses true KO ability at the 125lb weight class, averaging 60.49% significant strikes landed per minute and scoring 9 wins via (T)KO. He is just as dangerous as a grappler, earning 8 wins via submission averaging, and averaging a 50% takedown success rate.


Staring him down across the octagon is Mexican-born and raised Brandon Moreno, who wants to prove he is the new rightful Flyweight Champion. Moreno comes from a Brazilian-jiu-jitsu background holding an 18-5-1 record. Moreno lacks the KO ability of his opponent but more than makes up for it with his grappling. Moreno has 10 wins via submission and only 3 wins via (T)KO. He has proven he can take Figueiredos' strikes and keep going.


We fully anticipate the majority of this fight is on the ground with some action happening on their feet. Moreno will be able to weather Figueredo's strike yet again. We don't love a clear winner in this one, but we see this fight ending via decision.


BET: Fight Going The Distance (+126)


WELTERWEIGHT 5-ROUNDS

Leon Edwards (-570) vs. Nate Diaz (+435)


Fan Favorite Nate Diaz finally makes his return to the octagon for the first time in over a year. Diaz is a seasoned UFC vet, at the age of 36, and professionally fighting for 17 years. During that time, he has earned a record of 21-12. Diaz is an incredibly well-rounded fighter who trains with Cesar Gracie of the legendary Gracie family. On top of his great jiu-jitsu training, Diaz is also an excellent kickboxer. He can land combos with power, mix up his kicks and punches to get his opponents off-balance and do massive damage from the clinch. Diaz is also widely acknowledged for his elite cardio and durability and is known to step it up in the later rounds of fights and not break down as the minute's tick by. during his long career, Diaz has racked up 13 wins via submission, while only being submitted once himself and 4 wins via (T)KO, while only being KO'd twice. Being stopped only three times in 17 years is a remarkable accomplishment.


Leon Edwards is a rising star and heavy favorite tonight. Edwards currently holds an 18-3 record with 1 No Contest. Mostly known for his striking, Edwards can still mix it up on the ground and effectively take down his opponents. Edwards has 6 wins via (T)KO and 3 via submission and has never been stopped. Edwards is incredibly tough and can overwhelm guys by absorbing damages and returning it. Edwards is currently enjoying an 8-fight win streak and is currently the No. 3 ranked Welterweight in the world. He looks to finish Diaz and earn a shot at the championship against Kamaru Usman. he isn't as recognized as a late-round fighter like Diaz is but the truth is he can go those rounds. He is 2-0 in 5-round fights, both going to decision.


While it's important to note that Diaz has been off for over a year, Edwards also hasn't fought much recently either. Edwards' last fight was in March of this year but was stopped short after the first round, and his last fight prior to that was in July 2019. this will be a tough fight for both fighters. While both can deal with a lot of damage, both have been very durable throughout their careers. While the odds call for Edwards, he hasn't fought someone like Diaz into late rounds before. I bring you this because the two fights Edwards has seen into late rounds were Cowboy Cerrone and Rafael Dos Anjos, neither of which is the grinder that Nate Diaz is.


Bringing you this, we like Diaz, and here's why. If Diaz can stop some of the takedowns and keep the fight standing, we believe he can land more strikes and deal more damage and keep a distance using his reach advantage and out volume Edwards. If Diaz can keep the fight standing, we believe the line stands closer to a +130 for Diaz; of course, Edwards remains the favorite, but it's a lot closer if this fight stays on their feet. This will be a close fight, but we believe Diaz has a legitimate chance to edge out Edwards and win via decision.


BET: Fight Goes The Distance (+112) Diaz via Decision (+800)


WELTERWEIGHT

Belal Muhammad (-225) vs. Demian Maia (+185)


Belal Muhammad is another rising star in the UFC. Muhammad is coming into this fight with an 18-3 record with 1 No Contest. Muhammad is a very effective and efficient striker; he averages 4.75 significant strikes landed per minute and a 50% significant strike land rate. He can set up his opponents to land big shots. Muhammad is currently coming into this fight on a 4-fight winning streak, 3 via decision, 1 via submission. He also has 4 career wins via (T)KO. Muhammad is also recognized as a very tough fighter; he can stand and exchange strikes and keep pressing forward. He has only been stopped once in his career, and that was back in 2016.


Demian Maia is another seasoned vet taking on an up-and-coming fighter. Coming into this fight with a record of 28-10 September marks Maia's 20th year of professional fighting. Maia is a world-class jiu-jitsu black belt, and his fighting style heavily reflects this. Maia is not and never has been a world-class striker. He's good enough to connect a few times and set up a takedown so he can utilize his jiu-jitsu. he doesn't pack elite-level power. Still, he can land his shots with accuracy shown by him averaging 1.82 significant strikes landed per minute and his 61.15% land rate. Maia also doesn't have great head movement, so he doesn't slip punches and counter; instead, he'll throw a left and a right, take a punch himself and step forward to throw another before closing the distance enough to take down his opponent. Now with his limitations out of the way, again, Maia is world-class at grappling. He is great once he gets the fight to the ground and is incredibly smart at getting the fight to the ground. He is great at luring his opponents in before making a move, getting to a dominant position, and taking control. Once the fights on the ground, Maia is almost always in control; even if you think he's not, he really is, and he's just setting up his move to get to control. To go with this, Maia has 14 victories via submission.


This will be an interesting fight and could be a contender for Fight Of The Night. This is a tough fight to call for us; if Muhammad can stifle the takedowns and not get lured to the ground, the fight is his outright, but Maia can score points if it goes to the ground by getting control of Muhammad. This is the one fight we don't have a clear bet we like. There's value at Maia via submission, but Muhammad is also a smart fighter and will be looking out for that. Maia is also durable enough to take some shots and not get KO'd if the fight stays standing.


BET: PASS


LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT

Jamahal Hill (-270) vs. Paul Craig (+230)


Hill is a latecomer to the fight game at 30 years old and just 8 fights under his belt. however, Hill is 8-0 with 4 via (T)KO and 1 No Contest. Hill might be new to fighting, but he's exciting. Already ranked in the Top 15 fighters at the Light heavyweight division, Hill possesses a good combination of size, physicality, and speed. Hill relies heavily on his striking, but it isn't without reason. He averages 7.9 significant strikes landed per minute at 52.82% accuracy. Hill still has a lot to learn and improve as he continues to gain experience in fighting. one area he needs to work on is his takedown defense. He's been takedown 6 times in one fight before. However, he has shown an ability to be taken down and work his way back up quickly.


Stylistically hill has a tough fight ahead of him in Craig, who has a strong BJJ background. Craig is 14-4-1 professionally with 12 submission victories. He has an average takedown success rate of 23%. Now that may not seem very high, even that level of efficiency against someone with minimal experience and poor takedown defense is very substantial. one big knock against Craig is that he begins to breakdown after the first round and a half and cant maintain his pace into the late second and third rounds.


This will be a true test for the inexperienced Hill, but we believe he can pass. if hill can weather the storm and limit the time spent on the ground and prolong the fight, we believe this is his fight to take. Hill catching Craig early is a real possibility, and if not, if he can maintain and pressure Craig late in the second or in the third round, we think he earns another finish.


BET: Hill Via (T)KO (-125) Fight Ending In The Distance (-330)


*ALL LINES SUBJECT TO CHANGE

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